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 June 2003 (v03-n06)
Main Story - pgs. 1-7 New paradigm in prostate cancer treatment
Macro Market Commentary - pgs. 8-9
Biotech Monthly Coverage Update - pg. 10-25
NIBM Model Portfolio - pg. 26
(Full outline below...)

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Prostate cancer is the leading non-skin cancer killer. Over one million men have the disease and over 200,000 more are diagnosed every year. It is a potentially lucrative disease and every serious oncology company has a drug in trials or in development targeted at the disease.

During our trip to ASCO 2003, we became aware of a better way of understanding the treatment patterns of this disease. This new paradigm has important consequences for the potential market of several drugs -- not to mention important consequences for the men suffering from the disease.

This Main Story lays out our view of how prostate cancer will be treated in the future and the impact this new paradigm will have on oncology companies targeting this disease.

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The following is an outline of this issue of the NIBM Newsletter.

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Main Story - New treatment paradigm in prostate cancer
Introduction
Disclosures
The disease
About PSA
Treatment steps
Classic treatment steps
Step one - primary therapy
Table: Two disease stages, step one treatments
Step two - androgen deprivation
Table: Step two treatments
Step three - palliative intervention
Table: Step three treatments
A new way
Table: Three disease stages
Table: Three disease stages, four treatment steps
Moving forward
Market Impact
Dendreon
Genta
Seattle Genetics
Final thoughts

Macro Market Commentary - "Bullish trend to continue"

Biotech Monthly Coverage Updates
Dendreon (8 pages!)
Provenge potential market
Provenge cost
Reimbursement problems
Stubbornness deduction
Final figure
Off-label cushion
Multiple dose wildcard
Provenge study details
The physiological why
A clean subgroup?
Table: Wald's test of subgroups
Meaningful response
Table: Selected randomized stage two prostate cancer trials
9902b study
Provenge + Avastin
APC-8024
Mylovenge
Pipeline
Corvas Merger
Partnership agreement
Investment case
 
Genta (six pages!)
Genasense marketing strategy
The Taxol model
Sound familiar?
Financial projections
Timelines
Melanoma case data
Not changing our position
Genasense side effects
A different kind of side effect
Table: Genasense toxicity in a small Phase I SCLC trial
Prostate cancer
 
Seattle Genetics
NSCLC Phase II
Less toxicity
Results
Table: SGN-15 arm versus control arm
Prostate cancer
Breast Cancer
CD-30+ blood cancers
Investment case
 
Nabi
Product acquisition
 
Targeted Genetics
Cystic fibrosis
HIV/AIDS program
 
Indevus
Esperion
ID Biomedical
SciClone
Sonus
Onyx
 
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