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August
2004 (v04-n08)
- Anniversary Issue |
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- See the complete outline below.
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- This is a special issue of our newsletter. We provide
detailed updates on all the companies currently in our
coverage universe.
Weighing in at 150 pages, this is by far the largest issue we
have ever done. In this issue we examine all 21
companies in our coverage universe, ranking them from 1st to 21st
according to their chances for success over the next 12-18 months.
This is easily our most popular issue every year, often becoming a
tattered "handbook" in the top desk drawer of professional and
independent investors.
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| If you are interested in one of the companies
listed below you cannot miss this issue. |
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Subscriber direct access |
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In addition to updated milestone
tables for all companies, we asked each management team the following
four questions:
- You are in a room with your peers from the other companies in
our Model Portfolio. The audience will invest in only one company. Give me two or three
reasons why it should be your company.
- What is the most important strategic decision you’ve made
in the last year?
- What news do you expect to release between August
and the end of October?
- Does any member of the executive team currently have a hedge,
collar, or similar position on your company's stock or stock options?
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- Introduction
- About the format
- Definition: Overnight lower risk boundary
- Definition: Overnight upper risk boundary
- Table: 2004 Anniversary Issue Rankings
- Table: 2003
Anniversary Issue Ranking performance
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NOTE: Companies
appear on this table of contents in alphabetical order. In the
actual report, they are ranked from 1-21 according to their chance
for success over the next 12-18 months. |
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- Adolor (ADLR) -- 5 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (4 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosure
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- Niches to Riches
- POI refresher
- Table: Pivotal POI data
- Other trials
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Alteon (AMEX:ALT) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (7 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosure
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- What has gone before
- Spectra
- Table: SAPPHIRE vs. SPECTRA
- Cuff versus ambulatory
- Dose duration
- Dose too high
- Other medications
- Run-in
- Does this ensure success?
- Timing
- PEDESTAL
- Johns Hopkins trial
- Partnership
- Cash crunch
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Aphton (APHT) -- 8 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (14 updates since 11/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Quickie Insegia science lesson
- Gastrin science
- Ingenious Insegia
- UK Monotherapy trial (PC-6)
- PC-4 combo chemo trial
- Immunotherapy and chemotherapy
- Bottom line on PC-4
- Responder analysis revisited
- Impact on Insegia
- Foreign approvals and marketing
- Insegia's other indications
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Cortex (AMEX:COR) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (1 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Brief refresher
- Neurotransmitters and their receptors
- Ahead of the curve
- Behind the 8-ball
- Financing
- Cross-national study of CX516 on MCI
- CX717
- The orphan path
- Future drugs
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Dendreon (DNDN) -- 9 pages
- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (32 updates since 10/2003))
- Disclosure
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- 9902b timelines
- Historical enrollment timelines
- Historical analysis timelines
- 9902b enrollment timelines
- 9902b data timelines
- Other Provenge data points
- 9901 final data report
- P-11 data
- P-16 data
- 9902a data
- Partnership
- Table: Projected Provenge deal value
- Who will it be?
- Partnership timeline
- Provenge market
- Gleason ≤ 7 population
- Competition
- Target Market
- APC-8024
- Phase II design
- Other drugs
- trp-p8
- Antigen cassette products
- Investment case
- Four Questions
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- Discovery Labs (DSCO) -- 9 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (22 updates since 10/2003))
- Disclosure
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- Strong news flow
- The reasons for the low stock price
- Investment case
- Timelines
- Product updates
- Setting the stage
- Framework for viewing pulmonary research
- Nasal CPAP with aerosolized surfactant
- Aerosolized surfactant (adult indications)
- Table: Comparison of aerosolization vs.
lavage/instillation
- Aerosolized surfactant to treat acute lung
injury
- Aerosolized surfactant to treat asthma
- New product mixes
- ARDS and surfactant lavage
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- Four Questions
- Forbes Medi-Tech (FMTI) -- 3 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (7 updates since 2/2004)
- Disclosures
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- FM-VP4 next steps
- Partnership
- Reducol
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Genta (GNTA) -- 8 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (26 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Melanoma
- HIPPA dance
- Statistical significance reached in survival
- Timing for resubmission
- CLL
- Multiple myeloma
- Table: Multiple myeloma treatment schedule
- Other Genasense trials
- Lung cancer
- Acute Myeloid leukemia (AML)
- Genta, the FDA, and the industry
- Combination trial oddity
- Ganite
- Cash
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- ID Biomedical (IDBE) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (14 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- FluINsure
- FluINsure difference
- Development timelines
- Second hemisphere, second season
- FluINsure market
- Partner
- FluViral
- StreptAvax
- Dual-peptide strep/pneumo vaccine
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Indevus (IDEV) -- 8 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (14 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosure
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- Sanctura
- Partnership format
- Sales strategy
- Competitive profile
- Sanctura XL
- Competition
- IP-751
- Pagoclone
- PRO-2000
- Aminocandin
- What have you done for me lately?
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
- Introgen (INGN) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (12 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosure
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- Advexin regulatory strategy
- Phase II strategy
- Phase III strategy
- Likelihood of success
- Other Advexin programs
- Surgical adjuvant
- Mouthwash
- INGN-241
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Medarex (MEDX) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (10 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Pivotal MDX-010 trial
- Trial basics
- Table: Pivotal trial arms
- Chances for success
- MDX-010 plus chemo
- Other programs
- MDX-060
- MDX-070
- MDX-1100
- MDX-1185/1103
- IPO Benefits
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Nabi (NABI) -- 5 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (7 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
- Understanding Nabi
- Table: Nabi products on the market
- StaphVax
- WinRho SDF
- PhosLo
- Keeping your eyes open
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- Four Questions
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- Onyx (ONXX) -- 7 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (11 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Clinical pathway
- RCC Phase II
- Pivotal Phase III RCC
- Other indications
- Melanoma
- CDK-4
- Hypertension
- Systolic hypertension
- Adverse event grading criteria
- FDA focus
- RCC oral presentation
- 9006 in melanoma - The Royal Mardsen
experience
- 9006 in melanoma Phase I/II
- 9006 hypertension abstract
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Pharmos (PARS) -- 5 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (5 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- News flow at the ready
- The recent financing
- Update on the pivotal trial
- Opportunity to buy
- If TBI trial is successful
- Other issues
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- Four Questions
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- SciClone (SCLN) -- 12 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (7 updates since 10/2003
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Disclosures
- The year in review
- The new crew
- What is the new SciClone?
- Schering & Zadaxin
- Product Updates
- It's about inflammation again
- Hepatitis C
- Table: Key Zadaxin trials for Hepatitis C
- Facts about HCV treatment
- Table: Typical sustained viral response rates
- What efficacy is needed in the pivotal
trials?
- Competitive landscape
- Table: HCV drugs in American clinical
development
- IL-21 lurking as a competitor
- Table: Zadaxin vs. IL-12
- Cancer
- Cancer immune deficiency
- Treatment-related immunosuppression
- How Zadaxin helps
- Prior clinical research
- Hepatocellular cancer trials
- Melanoma cancer trial
- Final items for the future
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
- Seattle Genetics (SGEN) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (13 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- SGN-15
- Next steps
- Competitive marketplace
- Partnership
- SGN-30
- Patent issues
- SGN-40
- Multiple myeloma
- SGN-35
- SGN-75
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
- Sonus (SNUS) -- 7 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (13 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Competition
- Table: TOCp, Xyotax, Abraxane comparison
chart
- Development stage
- Infusion time
- Preparation time
- Patient time in office
- Volume
- Manufacturing & cost
- Comparative efficacy
- Partnership
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
- Targeted Genetics (TGEN) -- 4 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (8 updates since 10/2003)
- Disclosures
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- Rheumatoid arthritis
- Clinical trial timelines
- Patent "dialogue"
- Cystic fibrosis
- Clinical trials
- HIV/AIDS
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Valentis (VLTS) -- 4 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (debuted July 2004)
- Disclosure
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- Deltavasc basics
- Initial disease target
- Current therapies
- Deltavasc science
- Anticipation
- Managing expectations
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- ZymoGenetics (ZGEN) -- 6 pages
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- Table: Timelines
- Table: Basic Facts
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Table: Publication history (6 updates since 10/2003)
- rhThrombin (recombinant human thrombin)
- rhF13 (recombinant human Factor XIII)
- TACI-ig
- IL-21
- Strategic positioning
- Current status
- What others say
- The future
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- Investment Case
- Four Questions
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- Macro Market Commentary
- Shifting sands don't obscure short-term
risks
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- NIBM Model Portfolio Performance
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